Luxury rentals 2017 to 2020 financial roadmap

CTLV 2017 to 2020

Villa Secrets ‘Cape Town Luxury Villas.com’ 4-year financial road map

By Nick Ray Ball 27th August 2016

Financial-Forecast-2017-to-2020

Elevator Pitch

In 2015 we successfully tested the Villa Secrets Network Prototype ‘Cape Town Luxury Villas.’ Using the 2015 figures as a yardstick, the 2017 to 2020 business plan provides a roadmap to far greater success.

We are adding 3 extra profit centres, (2 additional websites and an initiative to recruit 8 exclusive villas) and developing a state of the art financial, business and marketing system, called the TFBMS.

Collectively creating an extremely profitable business model.

I like to think of this forecast in terms of ‘Good Economics,’ the exercise being to enter the lowest possible outcome for all variables (about 4000) and still come to a profitable conclusion.

In this document I present the 2017, 2018, 2019 & 2020 business plan for the first Villa Secrets Company ‘Cape Town Luxury Villas.com’ hereafter known simply as ‘CTLV.’ Also knows as ‘Villa Secrets Cape Town – Luxury Rentals’

This document is written around 6 spreadsheets and two documents that describe the TFBMS (Total Financial, Business & Marketing System).

TFBMS Part 1 – Total Marketing System
TFMBS Part 2 – Total Financial & Business System
CTLV 2017 Financial Forecast Spreadsheet (Download)
CTLV 2018 Financial Forecast Spreadsheet (Download)
CTLV 2019 Financial Forecast Spreadsheet (Download)
CTLV 2020 Financial Forecast Spreadsheet (Download)
CTLV 2017 to 2020 Financial Forecast Summary (Download)
Villa Secrets Projects ‘to do’ Calendar (Download)

For information about ‘CTLV’ in 2015 Click here

Please watch the following Videos

1. The Summary Spreadsheet (4.48 minutes)
https://youtu.be/cwGYzoBxaao

2. 2017 (First Year) Data Condensed (Tab 1) (8.53 minutes)
https://youtu.be/Y3Rqg6uKUNg

3. CTLV 2017 to 2020 Costs (8.45 minutes)
https://youtu.be/piSe4ofBnSM

4. 3 Villa Agency Websites Income (5.54 minutes)
https://youtu.be/dh99a7gNfKg

5. 8 Mandates and 12 HomeAway and other Subscriptions Income (7.27 minutes)
https://youtu.be/jH6m4nuswVs

6. TFBMS (Total Financial, Business and Marketing System) Multiplier (11.25 minutes)
https://youtu.be/ol2KIA42Q4Q

A written summary follows…

Please open the spreadsheet ‘CTLV Year 1 – 2017 Financial Forecast 3.01’, (Tab 1).

At the top we see the essential info, Turnover and Villa Payments are calculated as 85% of the gross profit, the gross profit being 15% of turnover.

Below turnover we see the Licence Fee which is 25% of turnover. Note that this is not a standard fee, rather a contribution to the collective operations, marketing and development pool. Which until gross profit reaches ZAR 4,000,000 is spent directly on marketing this business.

Next we see ‘Other Operational Expenses’ followed by shareholder discretionary income. However if the owner of the business takes the lead sales roll then this money is effectively shareholder discretionary income. In addition is the ‘Licence Spending Reserve’ which is money due to be spent on marketing that will most likely increase gross profit and shareholder discretionary income by more than the figure presented.

All told we find shareholder discretionary income is just over ZAR 1,00,000, which includes a lot of spending to increase gross profit in future years.

Below we see to see the 4 different profit centres

1. Row 34 ‘CTLV Bookings’ shows the income stream expected from the tried and tested www.Cape-Town-Luxury-Villas.com website.

2. Row 35 ‘Villa Secrets’ shows the income expected from 50% of the Cape Town enquiries from our flagship Villa Secrets website. (This may rise to 75%)

3. Row 36 ‘VillasInCampsBay shows the income expected from the new VillasInCampsBay.com website (Which will be very similar to the Villa Secrets Website, but focusing on Camps Bay and neighbouring areas.

4. Row 37 to 39 ‘Exclusive Mandate,’ ‘HomeAway Only’ & ‘Other Subscriptions’ account for the recruitment of 8 exclusive mandates (collated over 2 years).

5. Row 40 ‘Other Income / Sub Companies’ accounts from other income, such as referral commissions from selling properties. Or income created from sub companies, where CTLV has made a deal with a local specialist, for instance a specialist in Constantia, The Winelands, or the Cape Peninsular. Or a staff member or property manager, whereby ‘CTLV’ will receive between 12.5% to 50% of the sub companies Shareholder Discretionary Cash Flow (SHDCF).

Below the various income streams we find the standard expenses. Followed by the ‘Licence Fee Spending,’ an operations, development and marketing contribution equal to 25% of gross profit (+/-4.5% of turnover). Which for the first year and most of the second is spent directly on marketing ‘CTLV,’ in a way that is more effective that hiring a development or marketing company, as there is no profit made by Villa Secrets on these services.

Consider… the costs of creating a top of the line website for a single villa, the web framework, the website, over 20 pages of content, followed by at least one new page a month, media (at least 3 photos shots and a video), SEO (Search Engine Optimization) and SEM (Search Engine Marketing) and Inbound Marketing. Not to mention placing the villa on the homepage of various agency websites.

Paying agencies and individuals, will most likely result in about 50% of the cost paying for the manpower (the salary of staff) and 50% would be the expenses and profit of the company. However, in the case of Villa Secrets, due too various mechanisms our operational costs are lower and as mentioned there is no profit. As such contributing ZAR 75,000 towards a single villa website with Villa Secrets buys what would cost more like ZAR 150,000 from a commercial agency. And as for the quality, just look at the Villa Secrets website.

A breakdown of ‘Licence Fee Spending’ is provided at the bottom of the spreadsheet, as one can see not all first year spending is currently allocated.

First year un-allocated ‘Licence Fee Spending’ has been added to the first year shareholder discretionary income as ‘Shareholder Discretionary Cash Flow 2’ as seen below. This does not mean it will be paid to the Shareholder, rather that it is due to be spent on marketing or development (for instance if the company secured a 5th property mandate, or advertising of Bing, or content marketing) and that such spending will increase the gross profit by at least the value of the spending.

In addition to the un-allocated ‘Licence Fee Spending’ the salary for the ‘Sales Manager’ has also been added to ‘Shareholder Discretionary Cash Flow 2’ as seen below. (This would change if the owner wished to hire a sales manager, but would be replaced with the salary of one of the other key staff, if he/she wished to occupy that role instead).

Or alternatively if the owner of the business was an investor, the investor would deduct the ‘Sales Manager Salary’ from the ‘Shareholder Discretionary Cash Flow 2,’ note however an investor should be looking at years, 2, 3, & 4 not year one and in addition, the investor would need to distribute between 25% and 50% of their shares to the operations team.

Year 1 422,769 Shareholder Discretionary Cash Flow 1
Plus 385,059 Sales manager Salary
Plus 195,177 Licence Spending Reserve
Total 1,003,005 Shareholder Discretionary Cash Flow 2
Worst Case (-15%) 852,554 Shareholder Discretionary Cash Flow 2
Best Case (+15%) 1,153,455 Shareholder Discretionary Cash Flow 2
Year 2 1,615,894 Shareholder Discretionary Cash Flow
Plus 471,929 Sales manager Salary
Total 2,087,823 Shareholder Discretionary Cash Flow 2
Worst Case (-30%) 1,131,126 Shareholder Discretionary Cash Flow
Best Case +(30%) 2,100,662 Shareholder Discretionary Cash Flow
Year 3 4,034,201 Shareholder Discretionary Cash Flow
Year 3 After POP Investment 3,200,000 Shareholder Discretionary Cash Flow
Worst Case (-45%) 2,218,810 Shareholder Discretionary Cash Flow
Best Case (+45%) 5,849,591 Shareholder Discretionary Cash Flow
POP (SHDI Over 3,200,000) 834,201 Investment into New Companies
Special Projects 355,299 The Sienna Foundation (Charity)
Year 4 5,037,008 Shareholder Discretionary Cash Flow
Year 4 After POP Investment 3,200,000 Shareholder Discretionary Cash Flow
Worst Case (-60%) 2,014,803 Shareholder Discretionary Cash Flow
Best Case (+60%) 8,059,213 Shareholder Discretionary Cash Flow
POP (SHDI Over 3,200,000) 1,837,008 Investment into New Companies
Special Projects 1,372,606 The Sienna Foundation (Charity)

Note on the above, ‘best case’ and ‘worst case’ are based on ‘quantum forecasting’ detailed at the bottom of this document. In actual fact the ‘worst case scenario is the scenario we see in red, as in all (over 50 different) cases where we have made an estimate, we have done so from a ‘worst case’ scenario. For instance, the base of all Agency forecasts is the ZAR 1,431,000 gross profit created by ‘CTLV’ managers in 2015. However, the figure used to create the above figures was only ZAR 1,000,000.

Another clear example is the effects of the TFBMS (Total Financial, Business & marketing Systems) part 1 The TMS and part 2 The TFBS which present over 40 systems that boost profitability. The effects and percentages seen on the TFBMS pages are for the system as it will be in December 2019, each has a low and a high effectiveness and in each case we have used the low case, and lowered the effect further in line with the development schedule.

Going back to year 1…

All the workings for the first summary page on the spreadsheets are found on the second tab of each spreadsheet, for example ‘CTLV 1st Year 2017 Complex.’

Most details in these tabs are be explained via videos.

The Initial Data (Baseline figures)

The initial data is found at about column ‘AQ’ row ‘179’ in 4 sections.

1. ‘Low estimate for CTLV Gross Profit’ ZAR 1,000,000

This is the baseline figure for all agency website projections: The ZAR 1,000,000 is then broken into monthly segments. Please note that actual 2015 figures were over ZAR 1,400,000.

We have lowered the figures out of caution, but also in respect of
a. 2015 had some role over bookings included, bookings that were originally requested in late 2014 but only closed in January.
b. 2015 figures and has some goodwill factored in from the a few returning clients from April to December 2014.

Note in both cases we should by rights increase the baseline The ZAR 1,000,000 back to ZAR 1,400,000 in year 2 (2018). However, we have not done so, it remains at ZAR 1,000,000 and never moves above this point. This is specifically due to ‘Quantum Forecasting,’ which sounds complicated but it is not. Simply put ‘the best way to make sure one achieves a projected profit target, is simply to lower the projected profit target.’ Note that the original 3rd year profit forecast was for over ZAR 8,000,000 however due to always using low estimates it is now about half. That does not mean we expect to make half, rather that we are confident we will not make less that what has been projected.

2. ‘Villa Mandate.’ ZAR 213,304

For the actual working behind this please look at Tab 3 ‘1 Villa Mandate R7,500’ this tab shows the calculation of each mandate is based on a villa that charges R7,500 per night in low to mid-season (for instance March and November), which is pretty much the lowest priced villa we would wish to represent. To put this in context a Stefan Antoni Villa (as is what we desire for the mandated villas) have low to mid-season prices of R30,000 to R60,000. If CTLV’s portfolio of 8 villas were similar, the income forecast would increase by as much as 8 times.

Each year that passes we raise the low to mid-season rate by R2,500 a year.

Note also that the occupation is lower that would be expected and the commission is shared 50/50 with other companies in the network, affiliates and booking channels.

Lastly note the important ‘Additional bookings made from enquiries.’ This comes from enquires for the Villa that end up as bookings for other Villas. In our recent tests with HomeAway we found that most booking requests for Villa ’22 Geneva’ ended up as bookings for different villas.

3. Low estimate for 1 HomeAway.com Subscription ZAR 80,000

This figure is in respect of an experiment we are doing with HomeAway Platinum subscriptions that cost about ZAR25,000 per year per property. Cape Villas started in November 2015 and have so far generated ZAR 80,000 with 2 months left to go. We have used ZAR 80,000 as our baseline figure.

4. Estimate for 1 Cape Stay and Quintessentially Subscription ZAR 35,000

Same as above but for Cape Stay and Quintessentially or other subscriptions channels as we see fit, we do not have a baseline figure for these.

After the Cape Stay and Quintessentially section we come to Google AdWords costs for CTLV in 2015. Which I have increased by 15% for 2017, 35% for 2018, 50% for 2019 & 75% 2020.

Also note that within the working on the ‘Complex’ pages the budget for Villa Secrets Google AdWords is 50% higher still.

The TFBMS (Total Financial Business and Marketing Software)

Directly above the ‘Initial Data’ at column ‘AL’ row ‘116’ we find the TFBMS effects split into 3 sections.

1. The TMS (Total marketing System)
2. The TFBS (Total Financial & Business Systems)
3. M-Systems (16 Systems based on M Theory)
In row ‘AL’ we name the system, and in Row ‘AM’ we see the effect of that system applied to the ‘Initial Data.’ The percentage seen is the effect at the end of the year. This gain is then entered to the right, see rows ‘AQ,’ ‘AV’ and ‘BA’ etc… In January the first effect (row 116) ‘Bing PPC Advertising’ is at 50% which creates an effect of 1.8% to the baseline R1,000,000. Then in February in column ‘AV’ is at 100% which creates an effect of 3.5%.

In the rows below we see the effects of the TFBMS, the development order of the components are presented in ‘Villa Secrets Projects ‘to do’ Calendar.’

Each year the total power of the effect is increased, see columns AI (year 3), AJ (year2) & AK (Yaer1). The maximum effect being 100% in year 3.

In addition from Row 165 we see the effects of M-Systems. For the first 3 years we have only included the effect created from the other companies in the network. Such as that of real estate companies joining the network and recruiting mandates that ‘CTLV’ can exclusively offer to their clients without worry of the client finding the same villa from another source.

Year 3…

Please look on spreadsheet 3 ‘2019’ and scroll to the 12 month, column ‘CV’ row ‘116.’ Here we see the effect of the TFBMS in December 1999. Each effect is detailed at this point on the TFMBS documents. In each case, on the TFBMS docs we have a low and high effect. In all cases we have used the lowest forecast. It is expected that some or even most of the 44 components will fare a lot better than the low estimate.

Moving down to ‘CV’ ‘166’ we see the cumulative effect of the TFBMS and M-Systems. To increase the baseline figures by x 328.3%. Specifically, the ZAR 1,000,000 made via CTLV in 2015 via leads form Google would make ZAR 4,282,500 in Dec 2020 (x12).

In justification of the ‘328.3%’ please consider the following.

1. The CTLV 2015 gross profit was created using only Google AdWords (65% of GP) and a little SEO (25% of GP)

The TMS (Total Marketing System) in December 2019 also include:

a. Mountains of SEO (Search Engine Optimization)
b. Truckloads of SEM (Search Engine Marketing)
c. A near obscene amount of Content and Inbound Marketing
d. More than one Villa Secrets Magazine distributed globally
e. Monthly Villa Secrets Magazine Ads in publications such as Condé Nast Traveller
f. Billboard Ads
g. Hundreds of Videos
h. Bing Advertising
i. A huge amount of Re-Marketing
j. 25% of the contributions to Villa Secrets used to buy and send previous clients gifts, sometimes barters with brands like Bulgari for placement in the magazines, where the gifts are purchased by Villa Secrets Gifts from Villa Secret publishing for a quarter of their recommended retail price.
k. A ton of Social Networking
l. Significant Affiliate Marketing

To think that items ‘a’ to ‘l’ would only create as much an effect as the Google AdWords and the little SEO done in 2015 would be quite ridiculous, but let’s work at that low

So increase by 100% which we need to add to the original figure so making 200%

2. In 2015 for every 20 visitors we had to the website, we had one enquiry, one of the purposes of the TFBS is to decrease this ratio to one in 10 or fewer.

Hence another 100%, as the effect is cumulative (it effects all previous figures) this effect doubles the gross profit making 400%, this is already more that we have accounted for.

3. Next we consider that one enquiry in four creates a booking and that another role of the TFBMS is to improve this stat to one in two. This doubles gross profit again so making an 800% difference.

4. Lastly we should factor in non TFBMS income such the initial reduction from ZAR 1,4000,000 to ZAR 1,000,000. Plus, Inflation which in Cape Town is about 8% a year, and whilst we have more than factored this into the costs we have not included this within income. Plus, income from sales referrals and bookings outside Cape Town and lastly any income created by forming sub companies, which could be a lot.
All totalled we are looking at an expect gain of over 1600%, however due to ‘quantum safe forecasting’ we are reflecting an effect less than a quarter of the potential.

See the 2017, 2018, 2019 & 2020 summary spreadsheet for a breakdown of the above.

Considering the above we see that we are presenting a very safe forecast.

M-Systems ‘Quantum Safe Forecasting.’

M Systems are systems within the network based on inspirations from applied mathematics & theoretical physics.

In this forecast I have simulated four qualities of quantum mechanics, and please note that Professor Stephen Hawking says,

‘Quantum mechanics agrees with observation, it has never failed a test and it has been tested more than any other theory in Science.’

Quantum Mechanics is not a theory, it is the mathematics that powers everything digital, from cell phones and commuters to digital clocks.

Note; I am not working specifically in quantum mechanics rather looking to simulate/mimic the effect or benefit.

By working this way I have created a safer forecast. The original forecast was more than double in the 3rd year and whilst it seemed mathematically accurate, it did not account for worst case scenarios.

Fortunately, I have been working on a better forecasting method as a part of M-Systems Pt 4 ‘The Peet Tent & The MCQPS’ and I had the aid of Professor Stephen Hawking and Leonard Mlodinow’s 2010 book ‘The Grand Design.’

Quantum forecasting…

An extract from Professor Hawking’s & Leonard Mlodinow’s book follows (in regard to the Heisenberg uncertainty principle.)

Or stated simply: The more precisely you measure speed, the less precisely you can measure position and vice versa.

Point 1. Lower the baseline figures to create a greater chance of achieving a result equal to or higher than the forecast.

Converting this to business and economics I equated the position to time: 1 year, 2 years, 3 years (which is correct, as time is a position). Then I equated momentum to gross profit. (which is a generalization, but it seems to work). From this perspective to increase certainty I simply needed to decrease the gross profit forecast. Hence the ZAR 1,400,000 CTLV 2015 gross profit was lowered to ZAR 1,000,000 and all other initial input/ base math points were also lowered.

I appreciate that this is a very simple thing. However, I had not done this in the first instance and only by following the above math example did I arrive at the current projection.

Point 2. Again from Professors Hawking & Mlodinow:

‘If you half the uncertainty in position you have to double the uncertainty in velocity’

To accommodate this I considered that I would add an additional variable to the first year’s figures of 15%, then doubled the variable at 2 and 4 years. This is where we get the ‘Worst Case’ and ‘Best Case’ figures from in the spreadsheets Summary

Year 1 422,769 Shareholder Discretionary Cash Flow 1
Plus 385,059 Sales manager Salary
Plus 195,177 Licence Spending Reserve
Total 1,003,005 Shareholder Discretionary Cash Flow 2
Worst Case (-15%) 852,554 Shareholder Discretionary Cash Flow 2
Best Case (+15%) 1,153,455 Shareholder Discretionary Cash Flow 2
Year 2 1,615,894 Shareholder Discretionary Cash Flow
Plus 471,929 Sales manager Salary
  2,087,823 Shareholder Discretionary Cash Flow 2
Worst Case (-30%) 1,131,126 Shareholder Discretionary Cash Flow
Best Case (+30%) 2,100,662 Shareholder Discretionary Cash Flow
Year 3 4,034,201 Shareholder Discretionary Cash Flow
Year 3 After POP Investment 3,200,000 Shareholder Discretionary Cash Flow
Worst Case (-45%)  2,218,810 Shareholder Discretionary Cash Flow
Best Case (+45%) 5,849,591 Shareholder Discretionary Cash Flow
POP (SHDI Over 3,200,000) 834,201 Investment into New Companies
Special Projects  355,299  The Sienna Foundation (Charity) 
Year 4 5,037,008 Shareholder Discretionary Cash Flow
Year 4 After POP Investment 3,200,000 Shareholder Discretionary Cash Flow
Worst Case (-60%)  2,014,803 Shareholder Discretionary Cash Flow
Best Case (+60%) 8,059,213 Shareholder Discretionary Cash Flow
POP (SHDI Over 3,200,000) 1,837,008 Investment into New Companies
Special Projects  1,372,606 The Sienna Foundation (Charity) 

Point 3. Again from Professors Hawking & Mlodinow

One of the main difference between classical and modern physics is the Feynman Sum over histories, (M-Systems Part 14 ‘Angel Cities’). It’s a complex point in quantum mechanics but in M-Systems its simple. We start at the point we want to reach and work backwards.

As whilst the outline for these projection and the road map for the next three years was started in 2016 and written out to 2019. The version we are now working with starts in December 2019 and worked its way back to Jan 2017 (where after which we went forwards again to 2020).

One of the main advantages of working in this way is staffing and logistics. As we start with the staff & logistics model for 2019 and worked backwards. The result being that we really want to keep the main 3 key staff, and that we should look for smart people who can grow into the roll, (with little or no experience in the industry) where after we peg their salaries and commissions to gross profit so they can increase their salary year on year, which is essential if we are to keep them happy. An additional note on this point is the creation of sub companies by key staff as a further incentive to keep them.

Point 4. is from a part of the original M-Systems design, the ‘PQS’ (Predictive Quantum Software) circa 2012 and the MCQPS (Monte Carlo Effect Quantum Probability Software). Which is used to increase the power in nuclear reactions that by testing every possible outcome a reaction could follow, and keeping the reaction within parameters that worked.

This is the most useful of the quantum influences and is why the 43 different components in the TFBMS have a low and a high forecast and why we have worked on the low forecast for each effect in years one to three.

In year 4 we turn the dial up by 25%. This can be considered as another year’s work pushing the TFBMS minimum forecasts up by 25%. Alternatively, it can also be considered as an account of new systems we think of during the journey. In actuality it will be a combination of both. In addition, in year four we start to factor in the effects created via M Systems.

M-Systems POP (The Pressure of Profit Investment Principle)

‘Financial Gravity’

For a more detailed description of POP please look M-Systems points 5 ‘POP’ and 9 ‘High String Coupling.’

For now, we shall just discuss the effect POP has on the projections, please see below the sections ‘Year 3 After POP Investment’ and the sections in yellow.

POP is the founding mathematics of the network, simply put, when a shareholder reaches their POP point, which in this case is currently equal to the original financial contribution/investment of ZAR 3,200,000 once the shareholder is generating more than ZAR 3,200,000 the additional profit is used to invest per ‘POP’ method, typically a real estate development or new Villa Secrets companies in different locations or new S-World companies in the same location.

In theory, by working in this way the owners of the first hundred or so Villa Secrets companies will end up owning and receiving dividends from hundreds of other Villa Secrets companies and eventually thousands of S-World companies.

Year 3 4,034,201 Shareholder Discretionary Cash Flow
Year 3 After POP Investment 3,200,000 Shareholder Discretionary Cash Flow
Worst Case (-45%)  2,218,810 Shareholder Discretionary Cash Flow
Best Case (+45%) 5,849,591 Shareholder Discretionary Cash Flow
POP (SHDI Over 3,200,000) 834,201 Investment into New Companies
Special Projects  355,299 The Sienna Foundation (Charity) 
Year 4 5,037,008 Shareholder Discretionary Cash Flow
Year 4 After POP Investment 3,200,000 Shareholder Discretionary Cash Flow
Worst Case (-60%)  2,014,803 Shareholder Discretionary Cash Flow
Best Case (+60%) 8,059,213 Shareholder Discretionary Cash Flow
POP (SHDI Over 3,200,000) 1,837,008 Investment into New Companies
Special Projects  1,372,606 The Sienna Foundation (Charity) 

In addition, as seen in ‘Special Projects’ the 25% of turnover marketing and development contribution is used for ‘Special Projects’ of philanthropic, scientific, ecological or social intent.

Currently (and this could change soon) the POP investment for the owner of ‘CTLV’ is optional, but the ‘Special Projects’ funding is not, as it is this funding that I am most interested in. Consider S-World and Villa Secrets as a next generation ‘Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation’ as this was a big influence. And consider not one company but millions of companies contributing in the same way.

And further consider that had I made this contribution to myself not ‘for benefit’ no one would mind. Indeed, many would say it was a great way of showing investors that I believe in the product and the forecasts, as only after each company does very well do I get paid, albeit I then give this money away, but that’s beside the point. The point is it’s a fare levy for any business owner to pay. And it also incentivises myself and anyone else in S-World to make each company as profitable as possible.

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